CrimeMetric

Crime in Arroyo Grande, California

Major crime in Arroyo Grande is 57% below the U.S. rate per resident: 42% lower for persons crimes and 60% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 7.6% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
44
57% below the U.S. rate
64% below the California rate
down 7.6% in a year
Persons crimes
58
42% below the U.S. rate
57% below the California rate
down 3.5% in a year
Property crimes
40
60% below the U.S. rate
66% below the California rate
down 8.8% in a year
Social disorder
66
34% below the U.S. rate
35% below the California rate
down 6.7% in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Arroyo Grande

Crime by type

No crime type in Arroyo Grande is more than 10% above the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Arroyo Grande for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

How crime varies across Arroyo Grande

The middle half of Arroyo Grande residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 27 and 59; the typical (median) resident's is 31. The citywide figure (44) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.

Map of Arroyo Grande, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the bar's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–5065.4%
  • 50–10031.1%
  • 100–2003.5%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest on weekend daytimes

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm45
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am42
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm48
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am39
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 7.6% in a year; across California it fell 7.4%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-7.6%CA -7.4%-15.7%CA -14.1%
Persons crimes-3.5%CA -3.5%-4.2%CA -6.1%
Property crimes-8.8%CA -8.4%-19.3%CA -16.1%
Social disorder-6.7%CA -4.9%-11.9%CA -9.4%

Change in expected crimes, with California as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Arroyo Grande against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents

1,644 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Arroyo Grande; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:

Covington, GA19,266152
Ansonia, CT19,30984
Castaic, CA19,29870
Arroyo Grande, CA19,29544

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Arroyo Grande has a higher major-crime index than 1 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Grover Beach (2 mi), is 23% above Arroyo Grande's rate.

Santa Maria15 mi114
Oceano2 mi79
Nipomo8 mi57
Los Osos20 mi50
Arroyo Grande44
Orcutt19 mi23

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Arroyo Grande

What are the most common crimes in Arroyo Grande?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 44 a year), aggravated assault (about 27 a year) and shoplifting (about 23 a year). Compared with the U.S., murder stands out most: 6% above the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Arroyo Grande's figures add up its 12 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Arroyo Grande's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
  • 0.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 19,295. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Arroyo Grande, California." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/ca/arroyo-grande

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100