Crime in Ulster, New York
Updated ·Vorp Labs
The model puts major crime in Ulster at 13% above the U.S. rate per resident: 72% lower for persons crimes and 32% higher for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 6.9% from a year earlier.
- Modeled from FBI crime data for the police agencies serving Ulster. Where an agency didn't report to the FBI, its totals are estimated from its past reports or similar agencies.
- The model estimates about 19.4 major crimes per 1,000 residents a year (0.9 violent, 18.5 property), against 17.2 for the U.S.
- By the model's major-crime rate per resident, Ulster is higher than 78% of the 482 other New York places and 70% of the 8,446 other places nationwide on CrimeMetric.
Where these numbers come from
The estimates start from what police agencies report to the FBI, modeled across Ulster's 11 census block groups for 12,605 residents. How New York residents' crime totals reach the FBI: detailed incident reports for 74.9%, summary counts only for 17.9% and estimates from past reports or similar agencies for 7.2% (shares of 2020 residents). Sources · Method
- Year: many show an agency's last full FBI year (often two years back). These figures are the model's estimate for the current year, release 2026-11-10.
- Crimes counted: some add simple assault, vandalism or drug offenses to "violent" or "property" crime; here major crime is persons plus property crime, and social disorder is separate.
- Area: an agency's totals cover its jurisdiction, which can differ from the city's limits; these are summed over the block groups inside Ulster.
- Scale: a grade or a 1-to-100 score ranks places against each other; a rate per 1,000 residents and an index against the U.S. rate don't.
Rates are the model's estimates of reported crime per 1,000 residents a year. Index: 100 is the U.S. rate per resident; 200 is twice it. How we calculated this
How crime varies across Ulster
Half of residents live where the major-crime index is between 25 and 121.
- 0–5053.0%
- 50–10011.1%
- 100–20026.4%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+9.5%
Check an address in Ulster
Shoplifting stands out most, at 4.8 times the U.S. rate
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
Highest on weekend daytimes
100 is the U.S. rate, same hours.
Expected major crime fell 6.9% in a year; across New York it fell 8.7%
Change in the model's expected crimes, not a count of reports; New York in gray. 2031 is a model projection, not tested against past years.
Ulster against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents
410 of the 2,480 other places of this size have a major-crime index at least 15% above Ulster's, and 317 are within 15% of it; the middle of the group is 67. The 9 nearest in population:
U.S. = 100. Residents in gray.
Ulster's major-crime index is higher than 6 and within 15% of 2 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The closest, Kingston (3 mi), is about Ulster's rate.
U.S. = 100. Miles between population centers.
Questions about crime in Ulster
Is Ulster safe?
Ulster's major-crime index is 113, 13% above the U.S. rate per resident and higher than 78% of the 482 other New York places on CrimeMetric: violent crimes against people are 72% below the U.S. rate, and property crimes 32% above the U.S. rate.
What is the crime rate in Ulster?
The model expects about 244 major crimes a year in Ulster, about 19.4 per 1,000 residents, 13% above the U.S. rate.
Is crime going up or down in Ulster?
Expected major crimes in Ulster are down 6.9% from a year earlier; across New York they're down 8.7%.
What are the most common crimes in Ulster?
By the model's expected count, the most common crimes against people and property are shoplifting (about 194 a year), other larceny (about 27 a year) and aggravated assault (about 9 a year).
Are car break-ins common in Ulster?
The model expects about 6 thefts from vehicles a year in Ulster, 81% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Are car thefts common in Ulster?
The model expects about 3 motor vehicle thefts a year in Ulster, 86% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Is Ulster safe at night?
The model's major-crime index is 69 on Friday and Saturday nights from 6pm to 6am, against 179 at its highest in the daytime; 100 is the U.S. rate for the same hours. That's a citywide estimate per resident for those hours: it can't speak to a particular street, venue or evening. For one address, use the address lookup on this page.
Is crime in Ulster higher than the New York average?
Ulster's major-crime index is 113, within 15% of the New York rate per resident. New York as a whole is 106, where 100 is the U.S. rate.
How does crime in Ulster compare with Kingston?
Kingston, 3 miles away, has a major-crime index of 118, about Ulster's rate per resident. Ulster's is 113.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI or estimated where it didn't report, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Ulster's figures add up its 11 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Ulster has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 12,605. Model updated Nov 10, 2026. Release 2026-11-10
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Ulster, New York." Vorp Labs, updated November 9, 2026 (model Nov 10, 2026). https://crimemetric.com/ny/ulster
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
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