Crime in Surprise, Arizona
Major crime in Surprise is 49% below the U.S. rate per resident: 70% lower for persons crimes and 45% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are up 6.1% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Every crime type in Surprise is near or below the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Surprise for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Surprise
The middle half of Surprise residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 19 and 51; the typical (median) resident's is 30. The citywide figure (51) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5074.0%
- 50–10016.2%
- 100–2008.1%
- 200–4000.8%
- 400+0.8%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weeknights
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime rose 6.1% in a year; across Arizona it fell 3.2%
Change in expected crimes, with Arizona as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Surprise against U.S. places with 100,000 to 250,000 residents
245 of the 268 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Surprise; the middle of the group is 109. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Surprise has a higher major-crime index than 2 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Sun City West (4 mi), is 19% below Surprise's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Surprise
What are the most common crimes in Surprise?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 562 a year), shoplifting (about 396 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 219 a year). Compared with the U.S., simple assault stands out most: 14% below the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Surprise's figures add up its 87 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Surprise's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 23.6% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 178,288. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Surprise, Arizona." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/az/surprise
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Sun City West4 mi41
- El Mirage5 mi82
- Youngtown6 mi75
- Sun City7 mi56
- Citrus Park8 mi23
- Peoria8 mi79
- Litchfield Park9 mi55
- Glendale12 mi143