Crime in East Cocalico, Pennsylvania
Updated ·Vorp Labs
The model puts major crime in East Cocalico at 68% below the U.S. rate per resident: 87% lower for persons crimes and 64% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 8.9% from a year earlier.
- Modeled from FBI crime data for the police agencies serving East Cocalico. Where an agency didn't report to the FBI, its totals are estimated from its past reports or similar agencies.
- The model estimates about 5.5 major crimes per 1,000 residents a year (0.4 violent, 5.1 property), against 17.2 for the U.S.
- By the model's major-crime rate per resident, East Cocalico is lower than 73% of the 478 other Pennsylvania places and 82% of the 8,446 other places nationwide on CrimeMetric.
Where these numbers come from
The estimates start from what police agencies report to the FBI, modeled across East Cocalico's 6 census block groups for 11,202 residents. How Pennsylvania residents' crime totals reach the FBI: detailed incident reports for 32.2%, summary counts only for 35.0%, estimates from past reports or similar agencies for 24.9% and no reporting agency of their own for 8.0% (shares of 2020 residents). Sources · Method
- Year: many show an agency's last full FBI year (often two years back). These figures are the model's estimate for the current year, release 2026-11-10.
- Crimes counted: some add simple assault, vandalism or drug offenses to "violent" or "property" crime; here major crime is persons plus property crime, and social disorder is separate.
- Area: an agency's totals cover its jurisdiction, which can differ from the city's limits; these are summed over the block groups inside East Cocalico.
- Scale: a grade or a 1-to-100 score ranks places against each other; a rate per 1,000 residents and an index against the U.S. rate don't.
Rates are the model's estimates of reported crime per 1,000 residents a year. Index: 100 is the U.S. rate per resident; 200 is twice it. How we calculated this
How crime varies across East Cocalico
Half of residents live where the major-crime index is between 17 and 37.
- 0–5082.3%
- 50–10017.7%
- 100–2000.0%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+0.0%
Check an address in East Cocalico
Every crime type in East Cocalico is near or below the U.S. rate
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
About the same at every time of week
100 is the U.S. rate, same hours.
Expected major crime fell 8.9% in a year; across Pennsylvania it fell 8.6%
Change in the model's expected crimes, not a count of reports; Pennsylvania in gray. 2031 is a model projection, not tested against past years.
East Cocalico against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents
2,046 of the 2,480 other places of this size have a major-crime index at least 15% above East Cocalico's, and 213 are within 15% of it; the middle of the group is 67. The 9 nearest in population:
U.S. = 100. Residents in gray.
East Cocalico's major-crime index is higher than 1 and lower than 7 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The closest, Ephrata (5 mi), is 3.6 times East Cocalico's rate.
U.S. = 100. Miles between population centers.
Questions about crime in East Cocalico
Is East Cocalico safe?
East Cocalico's major-crime index is 32, 68% below the U.S. rate per resident and lower than 73% of the 478 other Pennsylvania places on CrimeMetric: violent crimes against people are 87% below the U.S. rate, and property crimes 64% below the U.S. rate.
What is the crime rate in East Cocalico?
The model expects about 61 major crimes a year in East Cocalico, about 5.5 per 1,000 residents, 68% below the U.S. rate.
Is crime going up or down in East Cocalico?
Expected major crimes in East Cocalico are down 8.9% from a year earlier; across Pennsylvania they're down 8.6%.
What are the most common crimes in East Cocalico?
By the model's expected count, the most common crimes against people and property are other larceny (about 21 a year), shoplifting (about 20 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 7 a year).
Are car break-ins common in East Cocalico?
The model expects about 7 thefts from vehicles a year in East Cocalico, 77% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Are car thefts common in East Cocalico?
The model expects about 5 motor vehicle thefts a year in East Cocalico, 74% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Is East Cocalico safe at night?
The model's major-crime index is 34 on Sunday to Thursday nights from 6pm to 6am, against 32 at its highest in the daytime; 100 is the U.S. rate for the same hours. That's a citywide estimate per resident for those hours: it can't speak to a particular street, venue or evening. For one address, use the address lookup on this page.
Is crime in East Cocalico higher than the Pennsylvania average?
East Cocalico's major-crime index is 32, 62% below the Pennsylvania rate per resident. Pennsylvania as a whole is 84, where 100 is the U.S. rate.
How does crime in East Cocalico compare with Ephrata?
Ephrata, 5 miles away, has a major-crime index of 115, 3.6 times East Cocalico's rate per resident. East Cocalico's is 32.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI or estimated where it didn't report, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. East Cocalico's figures add up its 6 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- East Cocalico has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 11,202. Model updated Nov 10, 2026. Release 2026-11-10
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in East Cocalico, Pennsylvania." Vorp Labs, updated November 9, 2026 (model Nov 10, 2026). https://crimemetric.com/pa/east-cocalico
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
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