Crime in San Rafael, California
Major crime in San Rafael is 23% above the U.S. rate per resident: 13% higher for persons crimes and 26% higher for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 24.2% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Robbery and rape / sexual assault stand out most, at about 2.0 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in San Rafael for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across San Rafael
The middle half of San Rafael residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 43 and 88; the typical (median) resident's is 67. The citywide figure (123) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5032.6%
- 50–10042.9%
- 100–20014.2%
- 200–4004.0%
- 400+6.3%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weekdays, day and night
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 24.2% in a year; across California it fell 7.4%
Change in expected crimes, with California as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
San Rafael against U.S. places with 50,000 to 100,000 residents
153 of the 540 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than San Rafael; the middle of the group is 92. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
San Rafael has a higher major-crime index than all of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Santa Venetia (2 mi), is 59% below San Rafael's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in San Rafael
What are the most common crimes in San Rafael?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 356 a year), shoplifting (about 291 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 176 a year). Compared with the U.S., robbery stands out most: 2.0 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. San Rafael's figures add up its 39 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- San Rafael's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 52.9% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 59,095. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in San Rafael, California." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/ca/san-rafael
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Santa Venetia2 mi50
- Kentfield3 mi31
- San Anselmo3 mi20
- Larkspur3 mi34
- Fairfax4 mi56
- Lucas Valley-Marinwood4 mi21
- Corte Madera4 mi25
- Mill Valley5 mi55