Crime in Bay City, Michigan
Major crime in Bay City is 14% above the U.S. rate per resident: 1.6 times for persons crimes and about the same for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 7.9% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Rape / sexual assault stands out most, at 2.3 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Bay City for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Bay City
The middle half of Bay City residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 70 and 131; the typical (median) resident's is 100.
- 0–502.6%
- 50–10050.2%
- 100–20038.2%
- 200–4009.0%
- 400+0.0%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest at night
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 7.9% in a year; across Michigan it fell 6.1%
Change in expected crimes, with Michigan as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Bay City against U.S. places with 25,000 to 50,000 residents
245 of the 960 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Bay City; the middle of the group is 77. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Bay City has a higher major-crime index than 6 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Essexville (3 mi), is 71% below Bay City's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Bay City
What are the most common crimes in Bay City?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 205 a year), aggravated assault (about 116 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 96 a year). Compared with the U.S., rape / sexual assault stands out most: 2.3 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Bay City's figures add up its 37 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Bay City's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 48.1% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 31,786. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Bay City, Michigan." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/mi/bay-city
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Essexville3 mi33
- Saginaw12 mi253
- Buena Vista12 mi158
- Bridgeport15 mi108
- Shields15 mi62
- Midland17 mi28
- Frankenmuth19 mi57
- Sebewaing24 mi39