Crime in Lower Swatara, Pennsylvania
Updated ·Vorp Labs
The model puts major crime in Lower Swatara at 66% below the U.S. rate per resident: 39% lower for persons crimes and 72% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 8.2% from a year earlier.
- Modeled from FBI crime data for the police agencies serving Lower Swatara. Where an agency didn't report to the FBI, its totals are estimated from its past reports or similar agencies.
- The model estimates about 5.9 major crimes per 1,000 residents a year (1.9 violent, 4.0 property), against 17.2 for the U.S.
- By the model's major-crime rate per resident, Lower Swatara is lower than 69% of the 478 other Pennsylvania places and 79% of the 8,446 other places nationwide on CrimeMetric.
Where these numbers come from
The estimates start from what police agencies report to the FBI, modeled across Lower Swatara's 6 census block groups for 10,120 residents. How Pennsylvania residents' crime totals reach the FBI: detailed incident reports for 32.2%, summary counts only for 35.0%, estimates from past reports or similar agencies for 24.9% and no reporting agency of their own for 8.0% (shares of 2020 residents). Sources · Method
- Year: many show an agency's last full FBI year (often two years back). These figures are the model's estimate for the current year, release 2026-11-10.
- Crimes counted: some add simple assault, vandalism or drug offenses to "violent" or "property" crime; here major crime is persons plus property crime, and social disorder is separate.
- Area: an agency's totals cover its jurisdiction, which can differ from the city's limits; these are summed over the block groups inside Lower Swatara.
- Scale: a grade or a 1-to-100 score ranks places against each other; a rate per 1,000 residents and an index against the U.S. rate don't.
Rates are the model's estimates of reported crime per 1,000 residents a year. Index: 100 is the U.S. rate per resident; 200 is twice it. How we calculated this
How crime varies across Lower Swatara
Half of residents live where the major-crime index is between 16 and 21.
- 0–5077.7%
- 50–10011.4%
- 100–20011.0%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+0.0%
Check an address in Lower Swatara
Every crime type in Lower Swatara is near or below the U.S. rate
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
About the same at every time of week
100 is the U.S. rate, same hours.
Expected major crime fell 8.2% in a year; across Pennsylvania it fell 8.6%
Change in the model's expected crimes, not a count of reports; Pennsylvania in gray. 2031 is a model projection, not tested against past years.
Lower Swatara against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents
1,946 of the 2,480 other places of this size have a major-crime index at least 15% above Lower Swatara's, and 264 are within 15% of it; the middle of the group is 67. The 9 nearest in population:
U.S. = 100. Residents in gray.
Lower Swatara has a lower major-crime index than all of its 8 nearest neighbors
The closest, Middletown (2 mi), is 1.6 times Lower Swatara's rate.
U.S. = 100. Miles between population centers.
Questions about crime in Lower Swatara
Is Lower Swatara safe?
Lower Swatara's major-crime index is 34, 66% below the U.S. rate per resident and lower than 69% of the 478 other Pennsylvania places on CrimeMetric: violent crimes against people are 39% below the U.S. rate, and property crimes 72% below the U.S. rate.
What is the crime rate in Lower Swatara?
The model expects about 59 major crimes a year in Lower Swatara, about 5.9 per 1,000 residents, 66% below the U.S. rate.
Is crime going up or down in Lower Swatara?
Expected major crimes in Lower Swatara are down 8.2% from a year earlier; across Pennsylvania they're down 8.6%.
What are the most common crimes in Lower Swatara?
By the model's expected count, the most common crimes against people and property are aggravated assault (about 17 a year), shoplifting (about 16 a year) and other larceny (about 16 a year).
Are car break-ins common in Lower Swatara?
The model expects about 5 thefts from vehicles a year in Lower Swatara, 81% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Are car thefts common in Lower Swatara?
The model expects about 1 motor vehicle thefts a year in Lower Swatara, 93% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Is Lower Swatara safe at night?
The model's major-crime index is 36 on Sunday to Thursday nights from 6pm to 6am, against 34 at its highest in the daytime; 100 is the U.S. rate for the same hours. That's a citywide estimate per resident for those hours: it can't speak to a particular street, venue or evening. For one address, use the address lookup on this page.
Is crime in Lower Swatara higher than the Pennsylvania average?
Lower Swatara's major-crime index is 34, 59% below the Pennsylvania rate per resident. Pennsylvania as a whole is 84, where 100 is the U.S. rate.
How does crime in Lower Swatara compare with Middletown?
Middletown, 2 miles away, has a major-crime index of 54, 1.6 times Lower Swatara's rate per resident. Lower Swatara's is 34.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI or estimated where it didn't report, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Lower Swatara's figures add up its 6 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Lower Swatara has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 10,120. Model updated Nov 10, 2026. Release 2026-11-10
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Lower Swatara, Pennsylvania." Vorp Labs, updated November 9, 2026 (model Nov 10, 2026). https://crimemetric.com/pa/lower-swatara
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
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