Crime in Fair Oaks, Virginia
Major crime in Fair Oaks is 7% above the U.S. rate per resident: 70% lower for persons crimes and 24% higher for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 16.2% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Shoplifting stands out most, at 3.4 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Fair Oaks for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Fair Oaks
The middle half of Fair Oaks residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 28 and 96; the typical (median) resident's is 45. The citywide figure (107) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5059.3%
- 50–10018.6%
- 100–20018.1%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+4.0%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weekend daytimes
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 16.2% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Fair Oaks against U.S. places with 25,000 to 50,000 residents
272 of the 960 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Fair Oaks; the middle of the group is 77. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Fair Oaks has a higher major-crime index than 5 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Fair Lakes (2 mi), is 2.0 times Fair Oaks's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Fair Oaks
What are the most common crimes in Fair Oaks?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 409 a year), other larceny (about 137 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 83 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 3.4 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Fair Oaks's figures add up its 21 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Fair Oaks's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 33.4% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 38,092. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Fair Oaks, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/fair-oaks
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Fair Lakes2 mi217
- Braddock2 mi33
- Greenbriar2 mi74
- George Mason3 mi105
- Fairfax3 mi175
- Oakton4 mi34
- Chantilly4 mi151
- Franklin Farm4 mi31