Crime in Mesa, Arizona
Major crime in Mesa is 17% below the U.S. rate per resident: 33% higher for persons crimes and 28% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 12.4% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Drugs and alcohol stands out most, at 2.3 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Mesa for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Mesa
The middle half of Mesa residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 31 and 99; the typical (median) resident's is 54. The citywide figure (83) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5047.2%
- 50–10028.1%
- 100–20018.4%
- 200–4005.0%
- 400+1.3%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest at night
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 12.4% in a year; across Arizona it fell 3.2%
Change in expected crimes, with Arizona as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Mesa against U.S. places with 500,000 to 1 million residents
24 of the 25 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Mesa; the middle of the group is 190. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Mesa has a higher major-crime index than 6 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Gilbert (6 mi), is 31% below Mesa's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Mesa
What are the most common crimes in Mesa?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are aggravated assault (about 1,729 a year), other larceny (about 1,708 a year) and shoplifting (about 1,176 a year). Compared with the U.S., drugs and alcohol stands out most: 2.3 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Mesa's figures add up its 311 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Mesa's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 51.7% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 514,228. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Mesa, Arizona." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/az/mesa
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Gilbert6 mi57
- Chandler10 mi72
- Tempe11 mi202
- Apache Junction11 mi80
- Queen Creek13 mi42
- Guadalupe13 mi110
- Fountain Hills14 mi51
- Sun Lakes15 mi31