Crime in Tucson, Arizona
Major crime in Tucson is 1.7 times the U.S. rate per resident: 1.5 times for persons crimes and 1.8 times for property crimes. Expected major crimes are up 17.4% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Shoplifting stands out most, at 4.3 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Tucson for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Tucson
The middle half of Tucson residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 47 and 170; the typical (median) resident's is 87. The citywide figure (172) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5026.3%
- 50–10030.3%
- 100–20022.9%
- 200–40012.2%
- 400+8.4%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest in the daytime
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime rose 17.4% in a year; across Arizona it fell 3.2%
Change in expected crimes, with Arizona as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Tucson against U.S. places with 500,000 to 1 million residents
18 of the 25 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Tucson; the middle of the group is 190. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Tucson has a higher major-crime index than 7 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, South Tucson (4 mi), is 3.7 times Tucson's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Tucson
What are the most common crimes in Tucson?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 7,537 a year), other larceny (about 2,247 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 2,191 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 4.3 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Tucson's figures add up its 388 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Tucson's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 56.6% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 553,071. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Tucson, Arizona." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/az/tucson
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- South Tucson4 mi646
- Catalina Foothills7 mi112
- Flowing Wells9 mi161
- Drexel Heights9 mi125
- Tanque Verde10 mi48
- Tucson Mountains11 mi54
- Casas Adobes12 mi155
- Tucson Estates13 mi78