CrimeMetric

Crime in Rincon Valley, Arizona

Major crime in Rincon Valley is 64% below the U.S. rate per resident: 70% lower for persons crimes and 63% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 8.3% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
36
64% below the U.S. rate
66% below the Arizona rate
down 8.3% in a year
Persons crimes
30
70% below the U.S. rate
76% below the Arizona rate
up 6.6% in a year
Property crimes
37
63% below the U.S. rate
63% below the Arizona rate
down 10.5% in a year
Social disorder
45
55% below the U.S. rate
62% below the Arizona rate
about flat in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Rincon Valley

Crime by type

Every crime type in Rincon Valley is near or below the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Rincon Valley for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

Neighborhoods in Rincon Valley

Rincon Valley is made up of 3 census block groups. The typical resident lives where the major-crime index is 43; the middle half of residents live where it is between 26 and 43.

Map of Rincon Valley, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the key's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–50100.0%
  • 50–1000.0%
  • 100–2000.0%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest on weekday daytimes

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm46
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am26
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm40
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am25
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 8.3% in a year; across Arizona it fell 3.2%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-8.3%AZ -3.2%-12.8%AZ -9.4%
Persons crimes+6.6%AZ +2.1%+1.9%AZ +1.4%
Property crimes-10.5%AZ -4.5%-15.4%AZ -12.2%
Social disorder-0.4%AZ -0.6%-3.1%AZ -3.4%

Change in expected crimes, with Arizona as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Rincon Valley against U.S. places with 5,000 to 10,000 residents

1,730 of the 2,163 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Rincon Valley; the middle of the group is 63. The 9 nearest in population:

Rincon Valley, AZ5,63036
Exeter, PA5,62427

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Rincon Valley has a higher major-crime index than 1 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Vail (4 mi), is 22% above Rincon Valley's rate.

South Tucson17 mi646
Tucson14 mi172
Sahuarita19 mi61
Vail4 mi44
Rincon Valley36

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Rincon Valley

What are the most common crimes in Rincon Valley?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 11 a year), burglary (about 6 a year) and shoplifting (about 6 a year). Compared with the U.S., burglary stands out most: 35% below the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Rincon Valley's figures add up its 3 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Rincon Valley has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
  • 77.2% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 5,630. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Rincon Valley, Arizona." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/az/rincon-valley

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100