CrimeMetric

Crime in Vail, Arizona

Major crime in Vail is 56% below the U.S. rate per resident: 63% lower for persons crimes and 54% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 6.8% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
44
56% below the U.S. rate
58% below the Arizona rate
down 6.8% in a year
Persons crimes
37
63% below the U.S. rate
70% below the Arizona rate
up 7.0% in a year
Property crimes
46
54% below the U.S. rate
55% below the Arizona rate
down 8.9% in a year
Social disorder
50
50% below the U.S. rate
57% below the Arizona rate
about flat in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Vail

Crime by type

Every crime type in Vail is near or below the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Vail for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

How crime varies across Vail

The middle half of Vail residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 25 and 43; the typical (median) resident's is 43.

Map of Vail, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the bar's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–5076.3%
  • 50–10016.2%
  • 100–2007.5%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest on weekday daytimes

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm54
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am35
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm48
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am33
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 6.8% in a year; across Arizona it fell 3.2%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-6.8%AZ -3.2%-11.9%AZ -9.4%
Persons crimes+7.0%AZ +2.1%+2.4%AZ +1.4%
Property crimes-8.9%AZ -4.5%-14.5%AZ -12.2%
Social disorder+0.5%AZ -0.6%-3.9%AZ -3.4%

Change in expected crimes, with Arizona as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Vail against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents

1,633 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Vail; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Vail has a higher major-crime index than 2 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Rincon Valley (4 mi), is 18% below Vail's rate.

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Vail

What are the most common crimes in Vail?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 51 a year), other larceny (about 38 a year) and aggravated assault (about 21 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 21% below the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Vail's figures add up its 7 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Vail has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
  • 100.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 20,218. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Vail, Arizona." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/az/vail

Use these numbers in your product

Any U.S. address by API or MCP, free for 10,000 lookups a month.

Get a free API key

Nearest cities we publish

Major-crime index, U.S. = 100