Crime in Modesto, California
Major crime in Modesto is 7% above the U.S. rate per resident: 1.7 times for persons crimes and 8% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 23.7% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Robbery and drugs and alcohol stand out most, at about 1.9 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Modesto for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Modesto
The middle half of Modesto residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 46 and 106; the typical (median) resident's is 70. The citywide figure (107) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5029.5%
- 50–10043.8%
- 100–20014.5%
- 200–4009.0%
- 400+3.2%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on Friday and Saturday nights
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 23.7% in a year; across California it fell 7.4%
Change in expected crimes, with California as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Modesto against U.S. places with 100,000 to 250,000 residents
138 of the 268 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Modesto; the middle of the group is 109. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Modesto has a higher major-crime index than 7 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, West Modesto (4 mi), is 57% below Modesto's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Modesto
What are the most common crimes in Modesto?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are aggravated assault (about 924 a year), other larceny (about 915 a year) and shoplifting (about 757 a year). Compared with the U.S., robbery stands out most: 1.9 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Modesto's figures add up its 139 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Modesto's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 55.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 220,996. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Modesto, California." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/ca/modesto
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- West Modesto4 mi46
- Bret Harte4 mi50
- Empire5 mi148
- Ceres5 mi88
- Riverbank5 mi82
- Salida6 mi40
- Hughson8 mi26
- Keyes8 mi47