CrimeMetric

Crime in Tonawanda, New York

Major crime in Tonawanda is 22% below the U.S. rate per resident: 64% lower for persons crimes and 13% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 8.0% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
78
22% below the U.S. rate
27% below the New York rate
down 8.0% in a year
Persons crimes
36
64% below the U.S. rate
67% below the New York rate
down 5.1% in a year
Property crimes
87
13% below the U.S. rate
17% below the New York rate
down 8.2% in a year
Social disorder
76
24% below the U.S. rate
27% below the New York rate
down 5.8% in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Tonawanda

Crime by type

Other larceny stands out most, at 38% above the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Tonawanda for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

How crime varies across Tonawanda

The middle half of Tonawanda residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 48 and 91; the typical (median) resident's is 52. The citywide figure (78) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.

Map of Tonawanda, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the bar's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–5030.7%
  • 50–10047.2%
  • 100–20022.1%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest on weeknights

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm71
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am91
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm73
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am76
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 8.0% in a year; across New York it fell 8.7%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-8.0%NY -8.7%-16.5%NY -14.4%
Persons crimes-5.1%NY -7.0%-4.8%NY -7.2%
Property crimes-8.2%NY -9.0%-17.5%NY -16.1%
Social disorder-5.8%NY -5.2%-9.3%NY -6.7%

Change in expected crimes, with New York as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Tonawanda against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents

981 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Tonawanda; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:

Ozark, AL14,896165
Parkway, CA14,852161
Live Oak, TX14,878158
Tomball, TX14,899118
Corinth, MS14,845116
Tonawanda, NY14,86378
Lilburn, GA14,88858
Hereford, TX14,88339

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Tonawanda has a higher major-crime index than 1 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Tonawanda Town (2 mi), is 13% above Tonawanda's rate.

Buffalo7 mi260
Sloan9 mi125
Kenmore3 mi84
Tonawanda78

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Tonawanda

What are the most common crimes in Tonawanda?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 103 a year), shoplifting (about 29 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 26 a year). Compared with the U.S., other larceny stands out most: 38% above the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Tonawanda's figures add up its 15 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Tonawanda has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
  • 0.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 14,863. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Tonawanda, New York." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/ny/tonawanda

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100