Crime in Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania
Updated ·Vorp Labs
The model puts major crime in Lower Paxton at 28% below the U.S. rate per resident: 56% lower for persons crimes and 22% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 10.9% from a year earlier.
- Modeled from FBI crime data for the police agencies serving Lower Paxton. Where an agency didn't report to the FBI, its totals are estimated from its past reports or similar agencies.
- The model estimates about 12.3 major crimes per 1,000 residents a year (1.4 violent, 10.9 property), against 17.2 for the U.S.
- By the model's major-crime rate per resident, Lower Paxton is higher than 55% of the 478 other Pennsylvania places and 45% of the 8,446 other places nationwide on CrimeMetric.
Where these numbers come from
The estimates start from what police agencies report to the FBI, modeled across Lower Paxton's 30 census block groups for 55,833 residents. How Pennsylvania residents' crime totals reach the FBI: detailed incident reports for 32.2%, summary counts only for 35.0%, estimates from past reports or similar agencies for 24.9% and no reporting agency of their own for 8.0% (shares of 2020 residents). Sources · Method
- Year: many show an agency's last full FBI year (often two years back). These figures are the model's estimate for the current year, release 2026-11-10.
- Crimes counted: some add simple assault, vandalism or drug offenses to "violent" or "property" crime; here major crime is persons plus property crime, and social disorder is separate.
- Area: an agency's totals cover its jurisdiction, which can differ from the city's limits; these are summed over the block groups inside Lower Paxton.
- Scale: a grade or a 1-to-100 score ranks places against each other; a rate per 1,000 residents and an index against the U.S. rate don't.
Rates are the model's estimates of reported crime per 1,000 residents a year. Index: 100 is the U.S. rate per resident; 200 is twice it. How we calculated this
How crime varies across Lower Paxton
Half of residents live where the major-crime index is between 21 and 89.
- 0–5071.7%
- 50–1004.4%
- 100–20016.8%
- 200–4005.0%
- 400+2.2%
Check an address in Lower Paxton
Shoplifting and drugs and alcohol stand out most, at about 1.9 times the U.S. rate
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
Highest on weekday daytimes
100 is the U.S. rate, same hours.
Expected major crime fell 10.9% in a year; across Pennsylvania it fell 8.6%
Change in the model's expected crimes, not a count of reports; Pennsylvania in gray. 2031 is a model projection, not tested against past years.
Lower Paxton against U.S. places with 50,000 to 100,000 residents
327 of the 580 other places of this size have a major-crime index at least 15% above Lower Paxton's, and 102 are within 15% of it; the middle of the group is 91. The 9 nearest in population:
U.S. = 100. Residents in gray.
Lower Paxton's major-crime index is higher than 3, lower than 4 and within 15% of 1 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The closest, Colonial Park (1 mi), is 27% above Lower Paxton's rate.
U.S. = 100. Miles between population centers.
Questions about crime in Lower Paxton
Is Lower Paxton safe?
Lower Paxton's major-crime index is 72, 28% below the U.S. rate per resident and higher than 55% of the 478 other Pennsylvania places on CrimeMetric: violent crimes against people are 56% below the U.S. rate, and property crimes 22% below the U.S. rate.
What is the crime rate in Lower Paxton?
The model expects about 688 major crimes a year in Lower Paxton, about 12.3 per 1,000 residents, 28% below the U.S. rate.
Is crime going up or down in Lower Paxton?
Expected major crimes in Lower Paxton are down 10.9% from a year earlier; across Pennsylvania they're down 8.6%.
What are the most common crimes in Lower Paxton?
By the model's expected count, the most common crimes against people and property are shoplifting (about 331 a year), other larceny (about 157 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 61 a year).
Are car break-ins common in Lower Paxton?
The model expects about 61 thefts from vehicles a year in Lower Paxton, 59% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Are car thefts common in Lower Paxton?
The model expects about 31 motor vehicle thefts a year in Lower Paxton, 65% below the U.S. rate per resident.
Is Lower Paxton safe at night?
The model's major-crime index is 60 on Sunday to Thursday nights from 6pm to 6am, against 85 at its highest in the daytime; 100 is the U.S. rate for the same hours. That's a citywide estimate per resident for those hours: it can't speak to a particular street, venue or evening. For one address, use the address lookup on this page.
Is crime in Lower Paxton higher than the Pennsylvania average?
Lower Paxton's major-crime index is 72, 14% below the Pennsylvania rate per resident. Pennsylvania as a whole is 84, where 100 is the U.S. rate.
How does crime in Lower Paxton compare with Colonial Park?
Colonial Park, 1 mile away, has a major-crime index of 91, 27% above Lower Paxton's rate per resident. Lower Paxton's is 72.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI or estimated where it didn't report, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Lower Paxton's figures add up its 30 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Lower Paxton has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 55,833. Model updated Nov 10, 2026. Release 2026-11-10
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania." Vorp Labs, updated November 9, 2026 (model Nov 10, 2026). https://crimemetric.com/pa/lower-paxton
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
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