Crime in Bull Run (Prince William County), Virginia
Major crime in Bull Run is 1.8 times the U.S. rate per resident: 22% higher for persons crimes and 1.9 times for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 19.1% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Shoplifting stands out most, at 5.0 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Bull Run for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Bull Run
The middle half of Bull Run residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 38 and 85; the typical (median) resident's is 42. The citywide figure (177) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5054.1%
- 50–10032.8%
- 100–2000.0%
- 200–40011.7%
- 400+1.4%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest in the daytime
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 19.1% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Bull Run against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents
169 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Bull Run; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Bull Run has a higher major-crime index than all of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Sudley (2 mi), is 47% below Bull Run's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Bull Run
What are the most common crimes in Bull Run?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 284 a year), theft from vehicle (about 70 a year) and motor vehicle theft (about 53 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 5.0 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Bull Run's figures add up its 8 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Bull Run has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
- 80.6% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 17,713. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Bull Run (Prince William County), Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/bull-run
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Sudley2 mi94
- Loch Lomond3 mi49
- Linton Hall3 mi39
- Manassas4 mi86
- Yorkshire4 mi112
- Manassas Park4 mi35
- Bull Run5 mi24
- Buckhall6 mi46