CrimeMetric

Crime in Dumfries, Virginia

Major crime in Dumfries is 27% below the U.S. rate per resident: 56% lower for persons crimes and 20% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 8.6% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
73
27% below the U.S. rate
14% below the Virginia rate
down 8.6% in a year
Persons crimes
44
56% below the U.S. rate
31% below the Virginia rate
down 6.1% in a year
Property crimes
80
20% below the U.S. rate
11% below the Virginia rate
down 8.9% in a year
Social disorder
94
6% below the U.S. rate
about the Virginia rate
down 6.3% in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Dumfries

Crime by type

Other larceny stands out most, at 42% above the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Dumfries for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

Neighborhoods in Dumfries

Dumfries is made up of 3 census block groups. The typical resident lives where the major-crime index is 57; the middle half of residents live where it is between 56 and 57.

Map of Dumfries, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the key's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–500.0%
  • 50–10086.8%
  • 100–20013.2%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest on weekend daytimes

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm73
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am72
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm78
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am72
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 8.6% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-8.6%VA -8.5%-5.6%VA -12.4%
Persons crimes-6.1%VA -5.2%+2.2%VA -1.9%
Property crimes-8.9%VA -9.0%-6.5%VA -14.1%
Social disorder-6.3%VA -5.3%+0.5%VA -5.7%

Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Dumfries against U.S. places with 5,000 to 10,000 residents

895 of the 2,163 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Dumfries; the middle of the group is 63. The 9 nearest in population:

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Dumfries has a higher major-crime index than 6 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Triangle (1 mi), is 40% below Dumfries's rate.

Dumfries73
Dale City6 mi48
Triangle1 mi44
Montclair4 mi40

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Dumfries

What are the most common crimes in Dumfries?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 37 a year), motor vehicle theft (about 7 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 6 a year). Compared with the U.S., other larceny stands out most: 42% above the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Dumfries's figures add up its 3 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Dumfries has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
  • 0.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 5,171. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Dumfries, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/dumfries

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100