Crime in Bailey's Crossroads, Virginia
Major crime in Bailey's Crossroads is 1.9 times the U.S. rate per resident: 28% lower for persons crimes and 2.2 times for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 16.1% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Shoplifting stands out most, at 6.8 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Bailey's Crossroads for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Bailey's Crossroads
The middle half of Bailey's Crossroads residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 53 and 220; the typical (median) resident's is 70. The citywide figure (193) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5024.8%
- 50–10026.1%
- 100–20019.3%
- 200–40025.3%
- 400+4.4%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weekend daytimes
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 16.1% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Bailey's Crossroads against U.S. places with 25,000 to 50,000 residents
61 of the 960 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Bailey's Crossroads; the middle of the group is 77. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Bailey's Crossroads has a higher major-crime index than 7 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Lake Barcroft (2 mi), is 81% below Bailey's Crossroads's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Bailey's Crossroads
What are the most common crimes in Bailey's Crossroads?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 567 a year), other larceny (about 131 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 61 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 6.8 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Bailey's Crossroads's figures add up its 15 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Bailey's Crossroads's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 53.1% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 26,067. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Bailey's Crossroads, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/bailey-s-crossroads
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Get a free API keyNearest cities we publish
Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Lake Barcroft2 mi36
- Seven Corners2 mi301
- Arlington2 mi109
- Lincolnia3 mi104
- Alexandria3 mi85
- Falls Church4 mi84
- West Falls Church4 mi70
- Annandale4 mi71