Crime in Lincolnia, Virginia
Major crime in Lincolnia is about the U.S. rate per resident: 46% lower for persons crimes and 15% higher for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 17.3% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Shoplifting stands out most, at 2.5 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Lincolnia for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Lincolnia
The middle half of Lincolnia residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 28 and 110; the typical (median) resident's is 59. The citywide figure (104) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5046.5%
- 50–10021.0%
- 100–20027.8%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+4.7%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weekend daytimes
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 17.3% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Lincolnia against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents
625 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Lincolnia; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Lincolnia has a higher major-crime index than 6 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Bailey's Crossroads (3 mi), is 1.8 times Lincolnia's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Lincolnia
What are the most common crimes in Lincolnia?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 170 a year), other larceny (about 86 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 50 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 2.5 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Lincolnia's figures add up its 14 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Lincolnia's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 27.5% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 21,363. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Lincolnia, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/lincolnia
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Bailey's Crossroads3 mi193
- Lake Barcroft3 mi36
- Annandale3 mi71
- North Springfield3 mi29
- Springfield3 mi155
- Rose Hill3 mi42
- Franconia3 mi51
- Alexandria3 mi85