Crime in South Riding, Virginia
Major crime in South Riding is 77% below the U.S. rate per resident: 81% lower for persons crimes and 76% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 16.4% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Every crime type in South Riding is near or below the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in South Riding for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across South Riding
The middle half of South Riding residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 10 and 19; the typical (median) resident's is 14. The citywide figure (23) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5077.3%
- 50–10022.7%
- 100–2000.0%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+0.0%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weeknights
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 16.4% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
South Riding against U.S. places with 25,000 to 50,000 residents
948 of the 960 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than South Riding; the middle of the group is 77. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
South Riding has a higher major-crime index than 2 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Loudoun Valley Estates (4 mi), is 12% below South Riding's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in South Riding
What are the most common crimes in South Riding?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 45 a year), shoplifting (about 39 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 23 a year). Compared with the U.S., simple assault stands out most: 43% below the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. South Riding's figures add up its 15 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- South Riding's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 22.7% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 36,307. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in South Riding, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/south-riding
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Loudoun Valley Estates4 mi20
- Chantilly5 mi151
- Bull Run5 mi24
- Moorefield6 mi21
- Floris6 mi39
- McNair6 mi65
- Franklin Farm6 mi31
- Centreville7 mi43