CrimeMetric

Crime in Loudoun Valley Estates, Virginia

Major crime in Loudoun Valley Estates is 80% below the U.S. rate per resident: 84% lower for persons crimes and 79% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 17.2% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
20
80% below the U.S. rate
76% below the Virginia rate
down 17.2% in a year
Persons crimes
16
84% below the U.S. rate
75% below the Virginia rate
up 8.0% in a year
Property crimes
21
79% below the U.S. rate
76% below the Virginia rate
down 20.2% in a year
Social disorder
30
70% below the U.S. rate
68% below the Virginia rate
up 3.1% in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Loudoun Valley Estates

Crime by type

Every crime type in Loudoun Valley Estates is near or below the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Loudoun Valley Estates for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

Neighborhoods in Loudoun Valley Estates

Loudoun Valley Estates is made up of 4 census block groups. The typical resident lives where the major-crime index is 8; the middle half of residents live where it is between 8 and 14.

Map of Loudoun Valley Estates, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the key's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–5077.0%
  • 50–10023.0%
  • 100–2000.0%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest on weeknights

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm16
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am27
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm15
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am22
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 17.2% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-17.2%VA -8.5%-8.9%VA -12.4%
Persons crimes+8.0%VA -5.2%+2.0%VA -1.9%
Property crimes-20.2%VA -9.0%-10.6%VA -14.1%
Social disorder+3.1%VA -5.3%+1.0%VA -5.7%

Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Loudoun Valley Estates against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents

2,123 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Loudoun Valley Estates; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:

Flowood, MS11,78387
Fenton, MI11,78184
Cahokia, IL11,79651
Fostoria, OH11,78043
Progress, PA11,80225
Loudoun Valley Estates, VA11,79120

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Loudoun Valley Estates has a higher major-crime index than 1 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Moorefield (2 mi), is 5% above Loudoun Valley Estates's rate.

McNair6 mi65
Ashburn4 mi39
Sterling6 mi34
Loudoun Valley Estates20
Belmont6 mi16

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Loudoun Valley Estates

What are the most common crimes in Loudoun Valley Estates?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 14 a year), shoplifting (about 8 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 7 a year). Compared with the U.S., simple assault stands out most: 49% below the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Loudoun Valley Estates's figures add up its 4 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Loudoun Valley Estates's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
  • 0.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 11,791. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Loudoun Valley Estates, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/loudoun-valley-estates

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100