CrimeMetric

Crime in Tampa, Florida

Major crime in Tampa is 34% below the U.S. rate per resident: 20% higher for persons crimes and 46% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 14.1% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
66
34% below the U.S. rate
11% below the Florida rate
down 14.1% in a year
Persons crimes
120
20% above the U.S. rate
47% above the Florida rate
up 11.2% in a year
Property crimes
54
46% below the U.S. rate
26% below the Florida rate
down 22.7% in a year
Social disorder
126
26% above the U.S. rate
1.6 times the Florida rate
down 2.2% in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

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Crime by type

Simple assault stands out most, at 1.8 times the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Tampa for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

Persons crimes

Murder13219
Robbery98174

How crime varies across Tampa

The middle half of Tampa residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 29 and 77; the typical (median) resident's is 50. The citywide figure (66) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.

Map of Tampa, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the bar's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Tap one to compare it. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–5050.7%
  • 50–10034.0%
  • 100–20012.0%
  • 200–4002.3%
  • 400+1.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest at night

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm28
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am111
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm33
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am112
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 14.1% in a year; across Florida it fell 7.8%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-14.1%FL -7.8%-5.9%FL -7.9%
Persons crimes+11.2%FL -1.4%+3.5%FL +3.7%
Property crimes-22.7%FL -9.3%-10.5%FL -10.8%
Social disorder-2.2%FL -3.5%-1.2%FL -0.3%

Change in expected crimes, with Florida as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Tampa against U.S. places with 250,000 to 500,000 residents

50 of the 53 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Tampa; the middle of the group is 142. The 9 nearest in population:

Minneapolis, MN432,807361
Oakland, CA443,222361
Wichita, KS406,088274
Tulsa, OK419,432224
Long Beach, CA447,681178
Aurora, CO410,284166
Bakersfield, CA419,241165
Arlington, TX409,726120
Tampa, FL413,78566

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Tampa has a higher major-crime index than 7 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Egypt Lake-Leto (4 mi), is 31% below Tampa's rate.

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Tampa

What are the most common crimes in Tampa?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 1,336 a year), aggravated assault (about 1,226 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 615 a year). Compared with the U.S., simple assault stands out most: 1.8 times the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Tampa's figures add up its 322 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Tampa has no published incident records in our data, so its estimate relies on agency totals and neighborhood characteristics.
  • 44.7% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 413,785. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Tampa, Florida." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/fl/tampa

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100