Crime in Sterling, Virginia
Major crime in Sterling is 67% below the U.S. rate per resident: 62% lower for persons crimes and 68% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 15.2% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Every crime type in Sterling is near or below the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Sterling for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Sterling
The middle half of Sterling residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 15 and 62; the typical (median) resident's is 24. The citywide figure (34) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5073.2%
- 50–10026.8%
- 100–2000.0%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+0.0%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weeknights
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 15.2% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Sterling against U.S. places with 25,000 to 50,000 residents
885 of the 960 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Sterling; the middle of the group is 77. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Sterling has a higher major-crime index than 3 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Dranesville (2 mi), is 34% below Sterling's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Sterling
What are the most common crimes in Sterling?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 57 a year), other larceny (about 52 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 28 a year). Compared with the U.S., weapons violations stands out most: 11% below the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Sterling's figures add up its 14 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Sterling's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 39.3% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 34,255. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Sterling, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/sterling
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Dranesville2 mi22
- Dulles Town Center2 mi162
- Sugarland Run2 mi23
- Herndon2 mi83
- Cascades3 mi62
- Countryside3 mi22
- McNair4 mi65
- Reston5 mi80