Crime in Cascades, Virginia
Major crime in Cascades is 38% below the U.S. rate per resident: 69% lower for persons crimes and 31% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 16.8% from a year earlier.
Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this
Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.
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Shoplifting stands out most, at 1.9 times the U.S. rate
Expected crimes per year in Cascades for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.
Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live
Property crimes
Social disorder
How crime varies across Cascades
The middle half of Cascades residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 10 and 22; the typical (median) resident's is 19. The citywide figure (62) is higher than that because crime concentrates in a smaller set of areas.
- 0–5086.2%
- 50–1000.0%
- 100–20013.0%
- 200–4000.0%
- 400+0.8%
Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.
Highest on weekend daytimes
Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.
Major crime fell 16.8% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%
Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.
Cascades against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents
1,251 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Cascades; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.
Cascades has a higher major-crime index than 6 of its 8 nearest neighbors
The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Sugarland Run (1 mi), is 63% below Cascades's rate.
Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.
Questions about crime in Cascades
What are the most common crimes in Cascades?
By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are shoplifting (about 85 a year), other larceny (about 30 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 15 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 1.9 times the U.S. rate per resident.
How we calculated this
Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Cascades's figures add up its 8 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.
- Cascades's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
- 13.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
- Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
- Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
- Residents: 14,159. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2
Full method and validation·Data sources
CrimeMetric. "Crime in Cascades, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/cascades
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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100
- Sugarland Run1 mi23
- Countryside2 mi22
- Dulles Town Center2 mi162
- Sterling3 mi34
- Dranesville4 mi22
- Great Falls5 mi42
- Ashburn5 mi39
- Herndon5 mi83