CrimeMetric

Crime in Great Falls, Virginia

Major crime in Great Falls is 59% below the U.S. rate per resident: 85% lower for persons crimes and 53% lower for property crimes. Expected major crimes are down 15.7% from a year earlier.

Modeled estimates per resident, not counts of incidents. How we calculated this

Major crime
42
59% below the U.S. rate
51% below the Virginia rate
down 15.7% in a year
Persons crimes
15
85% below the U.S. rate
77% below the Virginia rate
down 11.4% in a year
Property crimes
47
53% below the U.S. rate
47% below the Virginia rate
down 16.0% in a year
Social disorder
40
61% below the U.S. rate
58% below the Virginia rate
down 16.0% in a year

Index: crimes per resident compared with the U.S., where 100 is the U.S. rate and 200 is twice it.

Check an address in Great Falls

Crime by type

Every crime type in Great Falls is near or below the U.S. rate

Expected crimes per year in Great Falls for each type, and the index against the U.S. rate per resident.

Citywide indexWhere the middle half of residents live

IndexPer year

How crime varies across Great Falls

The middle half of Great Falls residents live in neighborhoods with a major-crime index between 24 and 50; the typical (median) resident's is 36.

Map of Great Falls, with its census block groups shaded by major-crime index band
Block groups shaded by major-crime index, in the bar's bands below; pale gray where fewer than 100 people live. Highways and boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 0–5089.9%
  • 50–10010.1%
  • 100–2000.0%
  • 200–4000.0%
  • 400+0.0%

Share of residents by the index of their census block group, a neighborhood of roughly 600 to 3,000 people.

When it happens

Highest in the daytime

Major-crime index by time of week, against the U.S. rate for the same hours.

Monday to Friday, 6am to 6pm47
Sunday to Thursday nights, 6pm to 6am35
Saturday and Sunday, 6am to 6pm48
Friday and Saturday nights, 6pm to 6am34
Trend and outlook

Major crime fell 15.7% in a year; across Virginia it fell 8.5%

Past yearBy 2031
Major crime-15.7%VA -8.5%-14.0%VA -12.4%
Persons crimes-11.4%VA -5.2%-6.0%VA -1.9%
Property crimes-16.0%VA -9.0%-14.5%VA -14.1%
Social disorder-16.0%VA -5.3%-6.2%VA -5.7%

Change in expected crimes, with Virginia as a whole in gray. The past year uses the reporting agencies' year-to-date FBI data; 2031 is the model's projection.

Similar-size places

Great Falls against U.S. places with 10,000 to 25,000 residents

1,693 of the 2,149 other places of this size have a higher major-crime index than Great Falls; the middle of the group is 72. The 9 nearest in population:

Lemay, MO15,641133
Thibodaux, LA15,599132
Lebanon, MO15,600103
Blythe, CA15,62786
Great Falls, VA15,61842

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; residents in gray.

Nearby places

Great Falls has a higher major-crime index than 4 of its 8 nearest neighbors

The 8 nearest cities and towns we cover, by major-crime index. The closest, Dranesville (4 mi), is 47% below Great Falls's rate.

Herndon5 mi83
Reston4 mi80
Cascades5 mi62
Great Falls42
Sterling5 mi34
Wolf Trap5 mi25

Major-crime index per resident, U.S. = 100; distances between where residents live, in miles.

Questions about crime in Great Falls

What are the most common crimes in Great Falls?

By expected count, the most common persons and property crimes are other larceny (about 43 a year), shoplifting (about 36 a year) and theft from vehicle (about 19 a year). Compared with the U.S., shoplifting stands out most: 28% below the U.S. rate per resident.

How we calculated this

Each police agency's crimes, as reported to the FBI, are spread across the census block groups it serves using population, jobs, points of interest and, where available, local incident records. Great Falls's figures add up its 9 block groups. The index compares crimes per resident with the U.S. rate.

  • Great Falls's published incident records inform the estimate for every neighborhood.
  • 0.0% of residents live in block groups whose estimate has high confidence (80% interval within about 5x).
  • Rates are per resident, so places where many people work or visit but few live, such as downtowns, airports and stadiums, can read high.
  • Disorderly conduct and trespassing are modeled, because the FBI records them only through arrests.
  • Residents: 15,618. Model updated Oct 20, 2026. Release 2026-2026-10-20-2

Full method and validation·Data sources

Cite this page

CrimeMetric. "Crime in Great Falls, Virginia." Vorp Labs, model updated Oct 20, 2026. https://crimemetric.com/va/great-falls

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Major-crime index, U.S. = 100